Global uncertainty, tightening capacity, and shifting carrier strategies are reshaping the China–New Zealand trade, and New Zealand importers need to plan proactively to stay ahead.

A fragile global backdrop

From a macro perspective, the outcome of the US–Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, with the situation delicately poised between escalation and resolution. While narratives differ across media and regions, one constant is clear: people everywhere are hoping for a swift end so civilians can find relief and global trade can normalise.

As tensions drag on, oil prices remain elevated, pushing up operating costs for shipping lines worldwide. In response, carriers have moved broadly in step, lifting levels across major trade lanes including China–New Zealand and China–Australia.

Blank sailings tighten supply

To sustain firmer market conditions through what is usually an off‑peak period, carriers have turned to the simplest lever at their disposal: blank sailings. Confirmed cancellations on key services such as JKN and Northern Star are directly impacting China–New Zealand sailings, while suspensions on several China–Australia strings are tightening capacity and creating spillover effects into the New Zealand market.

Across late April and into May, a series of blank sailings has been announced on services including JKN, CA2, Kangaroo, A3C, NEAX and Panda, covering major loading ports such as Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen into Australia and New Zealand. With Northern Star also skipping a mid‑May sailing into Auckland, the net effect is a noticeable reduction in weekly capacity into this region.

In a market governed by supply and demand, this matters. When available space contracts while demand holds steady or edges higher, conditions tend to firm and upward pressure builds.

What this means for China–New Zealand

Throughout April, and particularly in the second half of the month, the China–New Zealand trade remained relatively stable on the surface. Beneath that, however, blank sailings on both China–New Zealand and China–Australia corridors have steadily tightened the Australia market, with space shortages becoming increasingly evident and beginning to spill over into New Zealand.

One clear example is the JKN service, a core and widely used product on the China–New Zealand route, where space has become highly constrained. Many consignees have already sensed this shift: anticipating further firming and reacting to continuous general notice activity from carriers, both shippers and consignees are now advancing cargo that was not originally time‑sensitive.

The result is unusually strong booking forecasts for carriers for late April and early May. In a typical year, this is the period when carriers begin to soften their stance to stimulate demand, but 2026 is proving different. Reduced capacity from late‑April blanks, further cancellations in early May, and a natural pre‑holiday volume surge mean carriers are under little pressure to chase cargo.

For the first time in recent years, the China–New Zealand trade is experiencing a clear firming phase in early May, rather than the customary easing.

Carrier strategies to watch

Different carriers are responding to these conditions in distinct ways, and understanding these strategies can help importers choose the right partners and plan ahead.

• COSCO, OOCL and ANL
  These premium service providers significantly firmed their structures in the second half of April as fuel costs spiked, creating a notable gap versus other major lines. Because of that earlier move, they are now taking a more conservative stance into the first half of May, holding their current levels rather than chasing further immediate upside. However, with China–Australia remaining strong and space tightening, utilisation on these premium services is likely to be very high and space correspondingly tight.

• ONE
  Ocean Network Express is broadly aligned with COSCO and its partners, maintaining its current structures ex key Chinese ports into Auckland, Lyttelton and Napier through mid‑May. In practical terms, this approach is unlikely to significantly shift the competitive landscape, as customers tend to favour the more established stability of COSCO‑linked offerings when pricing is similar.

• Maersk
  Maersk has taken a more proactive approach, adjusting its structures ex CMP ports such as Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Ningbo, Shanghai and Qingdao to New Zealand’s main gateways, and setting higher levels again from northern China ports like Tianjin and Dalian. This move reflects the improved balance between supply and demand across both the China–New Zealand and China–Australia trades, underpinned by stronger volumes, market recovery signals, and extensive blank sailings.

• NOR (Non‑Operating Reefers)
  NOR structures have also been revised in line with the broader firming trend, and availability is being managed carefully as carriers balance equipment flows across competing trades.

Looking ahead: scenarios and planning

The current situation is being shaped not only by carrier tactics but also by geopolitical developments. The prevailing view is that the US–Iran conflict is unlikely to continue indefinitely, and there is a reasonable possibility that some form of long‑term ceasefire or stabilising agreement emerges over the coming one to two weeks.

None of the parties involved, nor the global economy, can easily absorb an extended conflict without significant long‑term costs. Once a resolution is reached, however, the industry will need to grapple with an accumulated backlog built up over recent months across the Middle East, the full extent of which remains hard to quantify.

If conditions settle as quickly as some media and AI models suggest, the global shipping network could undergo a short but sharp reshuffle from June onward. Carriers are likely to redeploy tonnage back into Middle East services at full strength and supplement them with additional extra‑loader sailings, which would, in turn, reduce capacity offered on other trades, including China–New Zealand and China–Australia. This redeployment could add a further firming impulse to structures on these lanes.

Against this backdrop, shippers and consignees trading with New Zealand should consider:

• Bringing forward non‑urgent but flexible cargo where possible to secure space.

• Allowing greater lead times for bookings, especially on popular services such as JKN and Northern Star.

• Building contingency into supply chains for June and beyond, when global capacity may be reshuffled.

• Maintaining close communication with logistics partners to stay across schedule changes, blank sailings and equipment availability.

At NZ Freight, we are monitoring these developments daily and working with our carrier partners to secure space and reliability for New Zealand importers. As the situation evolves, our focus remains on providing clear market insight and practical options so your supply chain stays resilient in an uncertain world.