In the world of shipping, the dynamics of the industry are always at the mercy of the fundamental principle of “supply and demand.” Over the past couple of years, the CN-NZ trade lane has witnessed significant shifts in market dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for players in the industry. As we delve into the events of 2021 and 2022 and the developments of the first half of August 2023, we begin to understand the fascinating transformation of the freight market and its potential impact in the coming months.

Changing Market Conditions

In 2021 and 2022, new players, TSL and ZIM, joined the CN-NZ trade lane, operating weekly services from China and Hong Kong to New Zealand hubs. However, their market share remained relatively small, with TSL reducing its services to New Zealand and ZIM struggling with long transit times. Meanwhile, established shipping lines like COSCO, OOCL, ONE, CMA, MSK, and PIL were unpredictably canceling sailings based on market conditions, leading to a fluctuating freight market.

Market Reversal and Increased Demand

The beginning of August 2023 marked a turning point as the General Rate Increase (GRI) was successfully applied, leading to a notable increase in freight rates. Notably, COSCO, OOCL, MSK, and ONE canceled the JKN service, removing over 5000TEUS of space allocations from the market. Coupled with the movement of Christmas stock, the CN-NZ trade lane experienced heightened activity, unlike the subdued months of April to June.

Forecasts for the Second Half of August

Looking ahead to the second half of August, carriers forecast strong figures compared to the first half of the month. The demand for shipping services is anticipated to exceed available capacities, causing carriers to increase rates accordingly. This trend applies not only to the CN-NZ trade lane but also to other major trade lanes worldwide, including China to Australia, Europe, and the USA.